You are going to hear a lot about the state of Nevada’s economy in the next campaign year, with candidates assigning blame for weakness and taking credit for robustness.

Contenders, especially for governor, will talk about what needs to be done to continue the success of the Brian Sandoval Era: Keep taxes low. Create jobs. Make Nevada Great Still.

My mind is numb. And it hasn’t even started yet.

This occurred to me last week when I came across The Tax Foundation’s “State Business Tax Climate Index.” The group is an unabashedly conservative outfit, and has been accused of bias. But it provides excellent data on these subjects, and I have found it a great resource. It is ideological but useful, the way Nevada Policy Research Institute was before it became an organ of right-wing hackery and political attacks.

So what does the Tax Foundation say about Nevada’s business climate going into 2018? Nevada has the fifth best tax system in the country, quite an endorsement of the Sandoval Era policies and despite the group’s harsh criticism of the Commerce Tax when it was passed and of gross receipts taxes in general.

It is worth taking a deeper dive into the Tax Foundation’s findings, especially on the eve of Attorney General Adam Laxalt’s gubernatorial announcement tour in which he is expected to call for the Commerce Tax’s repeal. I have previously said Laxalt and others should answer a series of key questions, including: “Do you support the 2015 tax increase, the largest in state history, proposed by Sandoval and passed by large majorities in both houses of the Legislature?”

Beyond the political spectacle of Laxalt opposing a key component of Sandoval’s legacy and his running mate’s (state Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson) major legislative achievement, there are serious policy questions to be addressed. (Historical note: Sandoval and Roberson lambasted the Tax Foundation in 2015 for criticizing the Commerce Tax.) And being a cockeyed optimist, I am certain, unequivocally and completely, that this race will be all about serious policy questions.

The Tax Foundation uses five indicators and weighting to arrive at a state’s ranking: Personal income tax (33 percent), sales tax (23 percent), corporate tax (19 percent), property tax (15 percent) and unemployment insurance tax (10 percent).

What’s interesting about the report is that Nevada only does well in two of the five indicators and still ranks near the top of the country. Because we have no state income tax (tied for first) and low property taxes (8th), Nevada makes up for its lower grades in sales tax (42nd), unemployment insurance (45th) and corporate tax (33rd).

That last one may seem odd, and I’ll explore it further in a moment. A few points:

--- The Nevada economy, which suffered disproportionately during The Great Recession because of the narrow tax base (almost all gaming and sales), is doing pretty well. The headline or U-3 unemployment rate has dropped by two-thirds since its high and is now under 5 percent. That may not be great in comparison to other states, and the so-called U-6 rate, which is a more nuanced and layered measure of unemployment, is still in double digits here. But we have come a long way.

The reasons for all of this are, of course, quite complicated and not easily explained in the sound bites to which we are about to be subjected by candidates. The workforce mix, the educational system, the available jobs.

But the economy here has not been affected in any adverse way – at least not yet – by the Commerce Tax that took effect more than two years ago on businesses with $4 million or more in annual revenue. And Sandoval’s semi-successful efforts to diversify the economy and make the state more attractive to employers, despite criticism of his use of tax incentives and abatements, proves that.

--- I doubt any gubernatorial candidates or contender for any other office will complain about our #1 ranking on personal income taxes. “Create a personal income tax” will not be a battle cry of 2018. (This is why I am paid the big bucks to be a political pundit.)

But already Roberson, echoing a nonsense refrain from the session, is excoriating a reasonable proposal to lift property tax caps imposed during the recession that have since had negative and unintended consequences on local governments. The lieutenant governor hopeful has signaled that he and others hope to skew the facts and deceive the public.

Property taxes in Nevada are very low and a very stable source of revenue. They would be raised if substance were the only criterion.

Where, though, are the cries to reduce sales taxes, some of the highest in the country? I wonder if it’s because our brave pols know these have been used to pay for budget items such as police –  the fear of not seeming pro-law enforcement does tend to weaken or erase principles.

--- Unemployment insurance taxes, as the Tax Foundation study explains, are complex in every state and often unfair to businesses. But they are a small part of the overall tax picture, as the study’s weights show. Still, if candidates really want to help businesses, as they will all claim to do, why not call for lowering this tax? Why? Because a slogan of “Keep unemployment insurance taxes low!” is no vote-getter.

--- Finally, let’s look at the Commerce Tax, which is the first real broadening of the tax base in modern Nevada history and which Sandoval considers one of his greater achievements to help stabilize funding or education. Although it is only 4.4 percent of the general fund, it raised just under $400 million in its first two years, which ain't peanuts. How you would replace that much money is not an easy question, but I expect the “waste, fraud and abuse” shibboleth.

As much as nonprofits can be anthropomorphized, the Tax Foundation hates gross receipts levies such as The Commerce Tax. It was up front about this in 2015 – taking about goods being taxed up and down the supply chain, unprofitable enterprises getting socked.

Indeed, Nevada was ranked No. 1 in corporate taxes in the Foundation ratings in 2014 and immediately fell to 26th after the Commerce Tax was passed.

It’s a little difficult to argue that the Commerce Tax is bad for the economy considering the state of the economy. The rates are all so low and the revenue threshold so high that no businesses or customers have complained with any volume or veracity.

The only legitimate concern for businesses – and, ironically, one of the most attractive features for those who want more money for education or pet issues -- is that this broadening of the tax base was the proverbial nose under the tent. That is, that future lawmakers will raise the rates or lower the $4 million revenue floor.

The Tax Foundation is not the definitive word on Nevada’s tax structure and economic health. But the state’s high ranking should be top of mind once the candidates start bloviating anytime now.

Jon Ralston is the editor of The Nevada Independent. He has been covering Nevada politics for more than 30 years. Contact him at [email protected]. On Twitter: @ralstonreports