I have a small confession. It’s hard for me to imagine how the walking shambles that is Donald Trump could be improving his standing with any rational voting demographic.

So that makes me skeptical that the former president’s stock is somehow surging among Black voters, a bloc dominated by Democratic Party registration and one that turned out in enthusiastic numbers for President Joe Biden in 2020. Some recent polls indicate my disbelief is misplaced, and Biden has much work to do to shore up the support of Black and Latino supporters in many states — including Nevada.

As a general rule, I try not to write columns about polls because they don’t age well and are a good way to make you look foolish. I am very capable of doing that on my own without throwing in statistics generated during a snapshot in time months away from Election Day conducted by survey outfits that barely mask their political motivations before trumpeting their findings.

But for the purposes of today’s discussion, I toss aside my general rule and slap my forehead after reading stories about sourcing multiple polls in recent weeks that have shown Trump with at least 20 percent support among Black voters with — try to act surprised — a Fox News survey giving him 26 percent. If accurate, that’s far above the 8 or so percent he received in 2020.

To no surprise, those numbers have generated some alarming headlines. In February, The Guardian pronounced, “Black and Hispanic voters deserting Democratic party in large numbers, poll says” before going on to accurately reflect the findings of a Gallup survey, which allowed “Democrats Lose Ground With Black and Hispanic Adults.”

In March, Axios declared, “Black and Hispanic men could vote Republican in numbers not seen since President Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in the 1950s.” As part of its analysis, it includes a New York Times/Siena College poll that charted Biden’s plummeting numbers with nonwhite voters despite Trump’s multiple racist and bigoted remarks about immigrants and people of color.

For its part, The Nevada Independent has been tracking this issue for weeks, informing readers that the Biden campaign has taken the soft poll numbers seriously by throwing $25 million into an advertising effort in swing states. It may take that and more to fire up inflation-fatigued Black and Hispanic voters and remind them that President Joe is in their corner and sending energetic emissaries of color into the field to help drive home the point.

The reasons for political malaise and discontent are many and complex. From inflation and immigration to the high cost of health care, the threat to reproductive rights and the U.S. response to the foreign wars, plenty of issues keep Americans up at night.

But it appears Nevada Democrats, who have elected and maintained a female-majority and ethnically blended state Legislature, aren’t standing on the sidelines of the enthusiasm debate. They’re beginning to remind voters that despite substantial obstacles and outright obstruction, Biden has their backs. And it’s helpful to remember where the economy was when he arrived at the White House.

And I’m far from the only skeptic. Others with far more experience in Black voting history recently told the Washington Post’s Dan Balz that the advantage is illusory. Barack Obama pollster Cornell Belcher called the likelihood of a historic surge “absurd,” adding, “I’ve been doing large-sample-size polls of Black voters … for four years and never in those four years has Donald Trump ever moved above 10 percent.”

It's clear Nevada Democrats are taking no chances.

One example: This past week, state Sen. Dina Neal and NAACP Las Vegas President Quinton Savwoir brought their statistics and observations to a Zoom hosted by Protect Our Care Nevada state director and state Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui. What they had to say shines a light on the direction Nevada Democrats are going in the weeks ahead.

It’s a walking talking-points memo that heralds the impact the Biden-Harris administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is having in bringing down health care premiums and prescription drug costs for all Americans — and especially for historically marginalized constituencies. The slickly produced Protect Our Care report highlights seven substantive advances in health care affordability and is a ringing reminder of the administration’s “promises made, promises kept” theme.

For a fuller background on the IRA, the Biden administration made available a detailed guidebook on its wide-ranging plan. The numbers crunchers at factcheck.org also offer the inquisitive statistics for the Biden era.

Although Neal acknowledged there was still much work to do, she said, “The administration has been actively trying to penetrate the health care system since the election of Biden. It’s not an easy task to overcome, but it is one that we need to continue to push forward and help the communities realize at the ground level all of the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act.”

The IRA is aimed at curbing inflation, reducing the federal deficit, promoting clean energy, lowering prescription drug prices and making health care more affordable. The fact it exists at all is a small miracle in a deeply divided Congress.

For NAACP leader Savwoir, the act is “making a measurable impact in our lives.” 

He reminded his audience that, “So much of the political discourse these days is banter and criticism and it only serves to disenchant voters and keep them from having faith in our systems and our institutions. At a time when our democracy is being challenged by conspiracy theories and disinformation, policies with tangible outputs like the Inflation Reduction Act need to be heralded. If I had a dollar for every time I heard a story of a family that lacked accessible and/or affordable health care, I’d be much closer to retirement.”

The continuing challenge is getting Nevadans to remember the bold attempt to improve their lives at a time they’re battling the smog of politics, high gasoline prices and other hits to their household budgets.

We’ll see if it works. Polling numbers can scatter like a covey of quail and be quickly forgotten as a campaign evolves, and I remain skeptical of these.

Margins of error and genuine concerns aside, Nevada Democrats have much more work to do to remind allies and skeptics alike that things aren’t so bad under the old guy and would be a lot worse in the alternative.

John L. Smith is an author and longtime columnist. He was born in Henderson and his family’s Nevada roots go back to 1881. His stories have appeared in Time, Readers Digest, The Daily Beast, Reuters, Ruralite and Desert Companion, among others. He also offers weekly commentary on Nevada Public Radio station KNPR.